The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has forecasted natural rubber (NR) production in 2017 to surpass demand by 3 million tonnes. In 2016, natural rubber output surpassed demand by 2.7 million tonnes.
As per the report released by the association this week, the total NR production of the member countries is expected to increase by 4.2% in 2017 from last year despite a fall in output in the first two months.
Considering the anticipated figures available up to May 2017, the total production for five months from January is expected to rise by 1.9% to 4.048 million tonnes from the same period in the previous year. Based on the revised outlook, the production in 2017 is anticipated at 11.214 million tonnes, up 4.2 % from 10.767 million tonnes in 2016.
The consumption among the ANRPC countries has gone up by 3.3% in the first two months of 2017 from a year earlier. As per the revised outlook it will increase 1.8% to 8.199 million tonnes during 2017 from previous year.
Latest report by the association pointed out that 2.2% fall in production in the first two months of the year has coincided with a 3.3% rise in demand from ANRPC region. The favourable supply-demand factor , in addition to a set of non-fundamental factors, continuesto support the market, it said.
The output fall in January and February has been attributed to the floods in South Thailand and earlier start of the lead-shedding season of rubber trees across countries. Most of the other major rubber producing countries have shown a rise in production. Indian NR production in two months is up by 30% to 116,000 tonnes from a year ago.
However, the report warned that prices can swing on either side in response to developments in crude oil sector, variations in currencies and flow of speculative funds. The consumption is likely to get a boost from the recent decision by the US not to impose anti-dumping duty on truck and bus tyres originating from China, it added. China is the largest global consumer of NR.
The ANRPC has 11 Members: Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam.